Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-5 things to know about US Open draw: Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz on collision course

Everything that has happened in tennis since Wimbledon suggests Novak Djokovic and Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank CenterCarlos Alcaraz are once again on a collision course to meet in the U.S. Open finals. 

After Alcaraz beat the 23-time Grand Slam champion in five sets at the All England Club, they met once in Cincinnati last week and produced a scintillating match that took nearly four hours before Djokovic prevailed in a third set tiebreaker.

At this point, they seem both far ahead of the field and as closely matched to each other as two players can be. Aside from the French Open semifinals, where Alcaraz’s body broke down with cramps, their other three meetings have each been decided by a whisker. 

So the likelihood is that they will play again in New York on Sept. 10 with the 20-year old trying to defend his title and Djokovic going for No. 24 and extending his lead over the sidelined Rafael Nadal in the all-time Slam race. 

However, Djokovic’s path to get there looks a good bit easier than his younger rival’s.

The seeds Djokovic projects to face include No. 15 Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has been in a deep slump this summer and No. 7 Stefanos Tsitsipas, whose record at the U.S. Open is strangely poor having never advanced past the third round. In the semifinal, he would face the winner of a wide-open quarter headlined by No. 4 Holger Rune and No. 5 Casper Ruud, who made last year’s final but hasn’t been as sharp this year. 

Conversely, Alcaraz opens with a fairly tough match against former top-50 player Dominik Koepfer and projects to face No. 6 Jannik Sinner in the quarters. Those two played an epic, 5 hour 15 minute quarterfinal last year that finished at 2:50 a.m. If Alcaraz gets beyond that, a semifinal against 2021 U.S. Open champ Daniil Medvedev would be the likely opponent. 

Here are four other things to know about the draw: 

Coco Gauff can’t get away from Iga Swiatek

It seems like Coco Gauff has ended up near the world No. 1 in the draw quite often the last couple years. That was a huge mental hurdle for the 19-year old American until last week when she beat Swiatek for the first time in eight tries. 

Gauff’s breakthrough victory could shift the expectations should they end up meeting again in the quarterfinals. Swiatek is defending her title and has played well this summer but doesn’t seem quite as dominant. 

Gauff, with a new coaching team, comes into the tournament with huge confidence. The winner of that match − if they both get there − could very well emerge as the title favorite.

They both have pretty favorable draws through the first week, though Gauff could face a tricky matchup in the second round against the very talented 16-year old Mirra Andreeva, who made the fourth round at Wimbledon.

Frances Tiafoe has a big opportunity

Last year’s surprise run to the semifinals made Frances Tiafoe a breakthrough star, drawing Michelle Obama and various NBA players to his matches.  After losing to Alcaraz in five sets last year, Tiafoe vowed to win the U.S. Open one day. And through the first part of 2023, it looked like he was on track to do big things as he reached the top-10 for the first time. 

But this has been an undeniably disappointing summer for Tiafoe, who got upset in the third round at Wimbledon and lost in his last three tournaments on hard courts to Dan Evans, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka − all players he should be beating at this point.

Tiafoe will have every opportunity in this draw to get his game back together as he landed in the Rune/Ruud quarter of the draw where there could be some early upsets. 

Don’t be surprised if there’s an all-American matchup between Tiafoe and Tommy Paul, who has been terrific the last few weeks, for a spot in the semis. 

Time for Jessica Pegula to break through

The only knock on the ultra-consistent Pegula is that she hasn’t reached a Grand Slam semifinal. But she has made the quarters in six of the last eight Slams and this may be the time to go at least one step further. 

Pegula is the best player in her quarter as the No. 3 seed, and though a first-round matchup against the powerful Camila Giorgi has some upset potential, this draw sets up really well for her. 

Coming off her biggest career title in Canada a couple weeks ago, Pegula is playing well enough to win this title too and won’t have to deal with any of the top-tier players before the semis. 

Interestingly, she could end up again facing No. 9 seed Marketa Vondrousova in the quarters, who beat her there in a close third set and went on to win the title. On a hard court, with the American fans backing her, Pegula would be a solid favorite in a rematch scenario. 

Farewells for some, introductions for others

John Isner, who led the American men’s contingent for many years, announced Wednesday the U.S. Open will be his last tournament. Isner, now 38, hasn’t won many matches this year and dropped outside the top-150 but still has a huge serve and will ride a wave of emotion into a very winnable first-round match against No. 93 Facundo Diaz Acosta. 

You never know, but this could also be the last U.S. Open for former champions Wawrinka and Andy Murray. Also, 43-year old Venus Williams will open against Paula Badosa, who was seeded No. 4 last year but comes in unseeded after a spate of injuries. 

Meanwhile, there are some big-time rising stars who could make noise including 22-year old Alycia Parks facing No. 13 seed Daria Kasatkina and 2022 NCAA men’s singles champion Ethan Quinn, who opens with veteran Bernabe Zapata Miralles.