FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|WNBA playoffs: Angel Reese, Chicago Sky fighting for final postseason spot

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank CenterWNBA playoffs are just around the corner. Which eight teams will be playing? That’s a good question. 

There are two weeks left in the regular season, which ends Sept. 19. The playoffs start Sept. 22, with three-game series hosted by the top seeds. Seven of the league’s 12 teams already have clinched playoff spots. And yes, the Indiana Fever, featuring WNBA Rookie of the Year favorite Caitlin Clark, is among them.

The other six teams are: New York, Connecticut, Minnesota, Las Vegas, Seattle and Phoenix. But the final playoff spot is very much up for grabs.

Here’s everything you need to know:

How do the WNBA playoffs work? 

In the WNBA, which has just 12 teams, the top eight go to the playoffs regardless of conference. Once all the spots are set, the top seed will play the No. 8 seed in a three-game series, the No. 2 seed will play No. 7, etc. The first round is a three-game series, with the first two games hosted by the higher seed. The semifinals and finals are five-game series, with the higher seed hosting games 1, 2 and 5. 

The last possible date for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals, if necessary, is Oct. 20

WNBA standings  

Going into Thursday night:

• 1. X-New York (27-6)
• 2. X-Connecticut (24-9)
• 3. X-Minnesota (24-9)
• 4. X-Las Vegas (21-12)
• 5. X-Seattle (20-13)
• 6. X-Indiana (18-16)
• 7. X-Phoenix (17-17)
• 8. Chicago (11-22)
• 9. Atlanta (11-22)
• 10. Washington (10-23)
• 11. Dallas (9-24)
• 12. Los Angeles (7-26)
• (teams with an “X” have already clinched a playoff spot)

Contenders for final WNBA playoff spot

As you can see, it’s going to be a tight race for the final playoff spot. Let’s break down the contenders.

Chicago Sky 

Chicago has lost seven in a row, and is 2-8 in its past 10 games. While the team boasts two of the top rookies in the league in rebounding machine Angel Reese and inside force Kamilla Cardoso, the roster lacks a veteran guard who has big-game experience. They often look disjointed and without an offensive identity. First-year coach Teresa Weatherspoon is known for her ability to motivate, but can she diagram plays that lead to Chicago buckets in must-score situations? 

The Sky is clinging to the eighth spot with both hands. If there’s a silver lining heading into the final stretch of the season, it’s that four of Chicago’s final seven games are against the bottom third of the league. The Sky holds a slim 2-1 advantage over Atlanta this season with the final matchup set for Sept. 17. That’s a must-win game for Chicago. 

Atlanta Dream

Atlanta’s roster doesn’t lack for talent by any means. The Dream have 2022 Rookie of the Year Rhyne Howard, 3x3 gold medalist Allisha Gray and Tina Charles, one of the best scorers and rebounders in the history of the league. Things haven’t come together though (Howard being out for a few games before the Olympic break with an injury didn’t help). 

The Dream dropped its last game vs. Phoenix and is 4-6 in its past 10 games. Five of Atlanta’s final seven games are at home, which should give the Dream an edge. The Sept. 17 game against Chicago is a must win, but perhaps more important are the back-to-back games against the Mystics. Win both of those, and the Dream will go into the Chicago game with some momentum. It would help to steal a win against either Minnesota or New York. 

Washington Mystics

The Mystics are 4-6 in their past 10 games, which implies they are not, in fact, tanking in hopes of securing probable future No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers. Though early in the season it would have seemed impossible for Washington to make the playoffs, now it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

Four of their last seven games will come against teams that have already secured playoff spots, so beating any of them seems unlikely. Then again, Washington winning back-to-back games at Seattle and Chicago seemed unlikely at the end of August and the Mystics pulled it off. In order for Washington to get that final eighth spot though, stars Ariel Atkinson and Brittney Sykes need to play well every game. 

Dallas Wings

Dallas is easily the most intriguing team on this list. Wings star Arike Ogunbowale is the best one-on-one player in the league and the WNBA’s second-leading scorer (22.6 points per game) this season. But her team has been besieged by injuries — Natasha Howard, Maddy Siegrist and Satou Sabally all missed long stretches. 

But now that everyone is finally healthy, Dallas seems determined to prove that its 9-24 record is not reflective of its talent. How else to explain the Wings’ dominant 94-76 win over championship contender Minnesota? Dallas has a brutal last couple weeks, with two games against New York and trips to Indiana and Las Vegas. But if anyone can make a run and pull off a few upsets, it’s Ogunbowale & Co. 

Los Angeles Sparks

No one is more excited for the 2024 WNBA season to end than the extremely banged-up Sparks, who will be lucky to win 10 games this season. They are not serious contenders for the final playoff spot. 

Email Lindsay Schnell at [email protected] and follow her on social media @Lindsay_Schnell