PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Americans say they're spending less, delaying big purchases until after election

The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center2024 election isn’t just dividing the country and sparking heated family and workplace conflicts.

It’s affecting how people spend – or don’t spend – their cold, hard cash.

Forty-four percent of young adults say they’re spending less on things like dining out, entertainment and subscriptions because of the election or economic uncertainty, according to an online survey of 1,500 18- to 44-year-olds in September and October by Monarch, a personal finance app and website. Monarch conducted the poll, whose results were provided exclusively to USA TODAY, with survey software created by Centiment.

Monarch officials said survey respondents likely understood “economic uncertainty” to mean in relation to the election based on other questions in the poll.

Nearly a quarter of the millennials (age 28 to 44) and Gen Zers (18-27) surveyed also said they’re delaying major purchases like homes and cars until after the election.

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How does the government affect inflation?

Much of the spending pullback is likely tied to fears that the presidential candidate they oppose could intensify inflation, said Rachel Lawrence, a certified financial planner and head of advice for Monarch. Inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in mid-2022 before gradually easing to 2.4% in September. But many Americans are still rankled by high prices.

“I hear a lot of concerns that inflation is going to rise and things are getting more expensive,” Lawrence said. “Many people are spending less to make sure they have (money) to do other things.”

Republicans worry Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will raise taxes and government spending, pushing up consumer prices. Democrats fear former Republican President Donald Trump will follow through on vows to impose hefty tariffs that will drive up costs on a wide range of imports.

Is the Fed going to raise interest rates again?

Millennials and Gen Zers, meanwhile, are delaying big purchases, in part, because they worry another inflation spike could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again or lower them more slowly now that they’re cutting rates, making financing a home or car more expensive.

Melissa Cullens, 42, of Westchester, New York, said she and her husband want to renovate their main upstairs bathroom for $20,000 but are holding off on concerns that Trump’s tariffs or other policies could hobble the economy.

“Not only would our housing value topple,” she said. She also questions the idea of investing the money “as opposed to having it liquid” in case of a downturn. “You’re going to want to have cash...There’s so much a feeling of pent-up waiting.”

Republicans appear more nervous than Democrats that prices could vault higher if their candidate loses. Thirty-three percent of Republicans are delaying big purchases compared to 25% of Democrats, according to Monarch's survey. And about 54% of Republican millennials are spending less on dining out and other discretionary purchases, versus 42% of Democratic millennials.

And though they’re older and generally have higher incomes, millennials are more cautious than Gen Zers, with 48% paring their discretionary outlays compared to 37% of their Gen Z counterparts.

“I think they’re in a space in life where there’s so much going on,” Lawrence said of Millennials. Many, she said, are starting families, buying homes and caring for both children and aging parents.

Young people also could be putting off purchases because they believe they’ll get a better deal if one or the other candidate wins, said Marcie Merriman, cultural insights and strategy leader for EY-Parthenon, a consulting firm. For example, Harris has proposed giving $25,000 in down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers. Trump is proposing lower taxes, which could leave Americans with more spending money.

Is consumer spending increasing or decreasing?

If people are reining in spending because of the election, there's little clear evidence it's affecting the economy broadly. Consumer spending increased at a robust 3.7% annual rate in the third quarter and the economy grew a healthy 2.8%, the government said in an Oct. 30 report. Lawrence said Americans may be reducing their outlays just modestly. It's also possible spending would be even stronger without the preelection anxiety.

At the same time, young folks’ frugality is being driven by more than pocketbook concerns, Lawrence said. After the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, many young people, especially Democrats, worry about another similar episode after the upcoming vote.

“People think there’s a chance democracy may not be as they thought it was,” Lawrence said. “We don’t know what’s going to happen.”

As a result, some young adults are spending less while others are splurging. About half of those surveyed, including a larger share of Gen Zers, said they’re prioritizing experiences such as vacations and events over long-term goals like retirement and savings.

“You don’t know if you’re guaranteed time,” Lawrence said.

Women of both parties, she said, are especially worried about further restrictions on abortion and reduced access to health care if Trump wins and seeks to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Two of her clients, Lawrence said, have asked her to draw up a financial plan that includes moving to another country.

Yet it’s not just Democrats who are concerned about life changing dramatically in the U.S.

“Both sides are putting out messages that the sky is going to fall if the other candidate is elected,” Merriman said.

“You won’t have a country anymore” if Harris is elected, Trump has said repeatedly at rallies in an apparent reference to what he describes as Harris’ more liberal immigration policy. Meanwhile, Harris recently told supporters in Washington, D.C., that the election "is a choice about whether we have a country rooted in freedom for every American or ruled by chaos and division."

The rhetoric from both sides has been amplified by the near-constant buzz of social media and news commentary that often overstate the perils of the other side winning, Merriman said. That could cause people to change their behavior, including their spending.

Gen Zers, she said, already have seen their high school and college years diminished by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The election “is more of the unknown," Merriman said.

While young people are spending more conservatively, they’re not the only ones. Fifty-three percent of Republicans, 39% of Democrats and 53% of independents said they’re spending less because of uncertainty leading up to the election, according to an Ipsos poll of 1,085 adults 18 and older conducted in early October.

Nancy Torborg, who is in her late 60s and lives in North Carolina, previously told USA TODAY she believes "people will have more confidence in the economy if Trump wins."

Meanwhile, Sherida Sutherland, 75, of the Rochester, New York area, said Trump’s 2017 tax reform boosted her tax bill by $6,000 and she worries his reelection could further squeeze her finances. She said she has stopped occasionally buying outfits for her granddaughters and is putting off replacing her 2008 Nissan truck with 138,000 miles. She’s also considering moving to Portugal after the election.

“I’m being cautious,” she said. “Very cautious.”