PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Violent crime rates in American cities largely fall back to pre-pandemic levels, new report shows

Most violent crimes in U.S. cities are PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerback down to pre-pandemic levels, according to the 2024 mid-year crime trend report by the Council on Criminal Justice released Thursday.

While federal crime data is difficult to track, the CCJ examines monthly crime rates in 39 cities that have consistently reported their crime data throughout the last several years.

Of the 12 types of crime analyzed, 11 showed lower rates so far this year compared to the same time frame in 2023. The exception is shoplifting, which is up 24% this year compared to the first half of 2023.

CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb said the data suggests the pandemic disrupted the motives, means and opportunities that drive crime, which could be the primary reason for the spike and subsequent drop.

"The world got turned on its ear, upside down, shaken in so many ways. And 2020 and '21, so much was disrupted, there was so much stress − economic and emotional," Gelb told USA TODAY. "That has subsided."

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Most violent crime rates back to pre-pandemic levels

In 2020, violent crimes spiked, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread racial justice protests. Experts have seen that spike wane for months, and now the CCJ finds most violent crimes have returned to 2019 levels.

According to the report, here is how the average rates have changed for the first six months of 2024:

• Homicides: 2% lower compared to first six months of 2019, 13% lower than the first 6 months of 2023
• Aggravated assault: 0.2% lower than the six months of 2019, 7% lower than the first six months of 2023
• Gun assault: 1% higher than the first six months of 2019, 18% lower than the first six months of 2023
• Domestic violence: 8% lower than the first six months of 2019, 2% lower than the first six months of 2023
• Robbery: 15% lower than the first six months of 2019, 6% lower than the first six months of 2023
• Carjacking: 68% higher than the first six months of 2019, 26% lower compared to first 6 months of 2023. (The CCJ advises caution with this statistic as only seven cities reported data for carjacking).

Motor vehicle theft reversing years-long upward trend

Motor vehicle theft has been on the rise since summer of 2020, but that trend appears to be reversing, according to the CCJ.

In 2024 so far, the motor vehicle thefts are down 18% compared to the same time frame in 2023, the report shows. However, it is still 66% higher than the first half of 2019.

As the report points out, stolen vehicles are often used to commit other crimes.

Residential burglaries, nonresidential burglaries, larcenies and drug offenses, also dropped compared to the same time period in 2023.

Shoplifting up 24% compared to 2023

Shoplifting, especially the coordinated "smash-and-grab" retail incidents, have also been a notably visible crime. Shoplifting was waning through 2021, and even by the end of 2023, the rate was still lower than in 2019.

"I don't think anyone will argue that shoplifting is even in the same universe as homicide in terms of severity, but it does help shape people's perceptions of where we are at as a society," Gelb said, mentioning the "brazenness" of some of shoplifting incidents.

In 2024, shoplifting is the one crime that CCJ found is still up compared to 2023. Shoplifting rates were 24% higher in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, and up 10% compared to the first half of 2019. However, the CCJ suggested the incidents could be reported to law enforcement at a higher rate too.

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Work still needed to get back to low 2014 rates

The report indicates the decline in violent crime is encouraging, but pointed out that 2019 crime rates were still higher than the modern low in 2014. For example, homicides were 15% higher in 2019 than 2014, according to CCJ. In 2014, the death of Michael Brown further ruptured public trust in police.

Gelb also said the changes in crime rates across cities were more uniform in 2021 and 2022. Now, cities are starting to diverge, with some cities showing increases in homicide.

"There's more variance in how things are returning to normal, and that, to us, suggests that local policy responses and strategies are are coming into play," Gelb said. "There's a gamut of those things."

Further, the report argues policy makers should go further to protect lives.

"Such progress is of little consolation to those who lose loved ones to violence," the report states. "The United States must not accept crime levels that kill and wound thousands of people each year, especially given advancements in our knowledge about what works to prevent and respond to violence."